The recent Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) Forum in Barbados came on the heels of the landmark M300 launch in Dar es Salaam. There was a special buzz in Bridgetown, an urgency that I’ve rarely felt at these conferences. With only five years left to deliver on the promise of SDG7, it felt like the entire energy access sector was ready to rally behind M300 for its most ambitious push yet. Under the expert leadership of Damilola Ogunbiyi, blessed by the presence of SDG7’s visionary Kandeh YUMKELLA, and inspired by the extraordinary Mia Amor Mottley, success seemed genuinely within reach.
Around half of M300’s ambitious target is expected to be met through off-grid solutions, and naturally, that got many in the off-grid industry excited. But as the initial excitement settled, one critical question started popping up: What exactly counts as a “connection”? When we say 300 million people connected, what are we really promising?
What exactly counts as a “connection”? When we say 300 million people connected, what are we really promising?
Unfortunately, conversations quickly slipped back into the all-too-usual debate about energy “tiers.” Should connections be Tier 1, Tier 2, or Tier 3? Is it modern enough? Is it productive enough? Does a tiny solar lamp count the same as a mini-grid powering a small business? Don’t people deserve better than an entry level solar home system? A war of words was going on from the plush couches of the VIP lounge to the spotlights of the main stage.
Here’s the thing: energy tiers alone don’t guarantee real improvements in people’s lives. A mini-grid might offer Tier 3 service but still fail if its tariffs are unaffordable, if it shuts down after 8pm because it was poorly sized or if the operator files for bankruptcy after two years. Similarly a Tier 1 solar home system can profoundly change a household’s life – but not if it breaks down after 18 months with no company in sight to collect payments, serve the warranty or provide repair services.
Tiers help policymakers categorize and measure, but they can become a distraction when it comes to planning and decision-making.
Tiers help policymakers categorize and measure, but they can become a distraction when it comes to planning and decision-making. The endless debates about tiers divert attention from three critical questions we should be asking instead:
- Impact per Dollar of Subsidy: How much does each solution genuinely improve people’s lives relative to the money spent? Not all energy investments deliver equal results. A simple solar lantern might drastically enhance educational outcomes and safety, providing greater impact per dollar than more costly infrastructure. With shrinking donor funds and limited government budgets, ignoring cost-effectiveness isn’t just inefficient – it’s irresponsible.
- Speed of Deployment: With less than five years remaining, solutions must scale rapidly. We need systems deployable to millions quickly, avoiding long delays from bureaucracy or complex projects. The least-cost analyses that our sector has grown so fond of often overlook the human cost of waiting decades for access to power. What’s the true cost of leaving communities in darkness while waiting for “optimal” solutions? Governments are growing impatient. Presenting them with solutions that can rapidly deliver results to their citizens is more critical than ever.
- Enduring Connections: Solutions must be durable and future-proof. While our sector has grown addicted to measuring connections based on what happens on the first day or in the first year, reliable today just isn’t enough. Systems, and just as importantly their distributors or operators, need to remain functional for years. Where possible the systems should also easily upgrade or integrate into expanding energy networks, avoiding costly replacements or abandoned investments.
ESMAP – Energy Sector Management Assistance Program‘s Multi Tier Framework is an amazing tool. Tiers help our industry measure progress, speak with a common language and provide an essential structure to policy makers. But let’s never mistake them for actual success. The ultimate measure must always be tangible, lasting improvements in people’s lives.
So, here’s a simple suggestion for M300: Instead of getting lost in the Tier Maze, let’s commit to delivering subsidy efficient, rapidly deployable, enduring connections?
