A new report indicates a deepening energy access disparity worldwide. Here are the main messages:
Global trend. The year 2022 saw a reversal in progress in efforts to expand access to electricity, with the number of people living without it growing for the first time in over a decade. While the proportion of the global population with access held steady at 91 percent, the 53 million new connections added between 2021 and 2022 did not keep pace with a 63 million increase in global population over the same period. Thus in 2022, 685.2 million lacked access, compared with 675.1 million in 2021. The reversal of progress can be attributed in part to global shocks, notably COVID-19 and the disruption in energy markets caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as regional shocks, such as the increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods in Sub-Saharan Africa because of climate change. Those still lacking access are becoming harder to reach because they live in more remote areas and have lower incomes. They are heavily concentrated in the least-developed countries, many of which are affected by fragility, conflict, and violence.
Regional highlights. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to most of the global population lacking access, and the disparity between regions is widening. Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for 83 percent of the global access deficit, up from 50 percent in 2010. While significant progress has been made toward universal access in Central and Southern Asia, where the access gap shrank from 414 million in 2010 to less than 33 million in 2022, the gap has flatlined in Sub-Saharan Africa as population growth has outstripped new connections. In that region, 571.1 million people lacked access in 2022, up from 566.1 million in 2010. Meanwhile, the region faces a shrinking fiscal space owing to persistent inflation, high interest rates, and low affordability thresholds.
Urban-rural divide. Against a backdrop of rapid urbanization, eight out of ten people living without electricity in 2022 reside in rural areas. While progress in closing the access gap has been more rapid in rural areas than urban ones, the gain was largely driven by significant improvements in Central and Southern Asia, where the rural population without access shrank from 383 million in 2010 to around 24 million in 2022. Progress in other regions has been far slower.
Top 20 access-deficit countries. Eighteen of the 20 countries with the largest access deficits in 2022 are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The top three—Nigeria (86 million), the Democratic Republic of Congo (78 million), and Ethiopia (55 million)—accounted for nearly a third of the entire global deficit. Concentrated efforts in these countries will be needed to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services. This effort should also include a deeper focus on improved data collection and use of modern analytical tools to track progress and support data-driven decision-making.
Decentralized renewable energy. Stand-alone off-grid solar solutions, including solar lights and solar home systems, were estimated to serve 490 million people in 2022, with the majority using it as their main source of light and power, and the rest using it as backup. Of the 490 million, 158 million had access to solar lights and home systems meeting international quality standards. Mini-grids were estimated to be serving 47 million people; half of those mini-grids were powered by fossil fuels, with hydropower and solar accounting for 20 and 13 percent, respectively. The proportion of mini-grids powered by solar is expected to rise rapidly in the future. Least-cost modelling suggests that 439 million new connections from 2022 to 2030 will have to come from the grid (53 percent), with 363 million (44 percent) coming from stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) and a further 24 million (3 percent) from mini-grids. There is no viable path to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 7.1—that is, to ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services—without accelerated deployment of decentralized solutions. But current investment flows fall far short of what is required for the sector to achieve its potential. This indicates a need to develop “self-help” eco-systems whereby consumers’ knowledge and implementation capacities can be enhanced so as to productively absorb larger flows of capital and technology.
Strengthening interlinkages with other SDGs by promoting the productive use of renewable electricity. Productive use is linked to increased productivity, income growth, and improved quality of life, contributing to SDG 2 on hunger, SDG 6 on clean water and sanitation, and SDGs 8, 9 and 12 on business, industry, and the economy. In on-grid and mini-grid settings, productive uses of renewable energy enhance the viability of rural electrification by stimulating demand. (Another benefit is that this increased demand helps strengthen the financial viability and performance of the grid where available.) In energy access settings, most productive uses of energy initially occur in agrifood settings, but as access improves these uses spread to a wide variety of sectors, from vocational work to the service-based economy. Hence, collaboration across energy, water, agriculture, and other economic sectors is needed to address challenges related to consumer awareness and affordability, as well as access to finance and capacity constraints at both the end-user and company levels.
Strengthening interlinkages with other SDGs by electrifying public institutions. Affordable, reliable, and modern electricity services are key to improving nutrition, health, education, jobs, and skills, thus contributing to SDG 3 on good health and well-being, and SDG 4 on quality education, among others. Conventional approaches to the electrification of public institutions such as health facilities and schools have struggled to achieve sustainability because of limited capacity and funding to pay for ongoing maintenance costs. Innovative approaches can be used to leverage private sector expertise and investment, while ensuring that financing and incentives are structured to ensure sustainability over the long term.
Excerpt of: “Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2024″, USAID, 2024