• BRICS economic bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran.
• Five new members have since been added to the alliance.

An alliance of major emerging economies — BRICS — has reached a pivotal moment: fossil fuels now account for less than 50 per cent of its total power capacity, a first in the group’s 15-year history.  The BRICS economic bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran. Five new members have since been added to the alliance.

The clean energy achievement represents a dramatic transformation for the world’s largest emerging economies. According to the 2025 Global Energy Monitor report, the original BRICS nations have installed over 890 gigawatts of renewable capacity since 2020, with China alone adding 300 GW of solar and wind power, altering the global energy landscape.

According to the report, Chinese manufacturers now produce 85 per cent of global solar panels and 70 per cent of wind turbines, driving costs down by 65 per cent since 2020. India has matched this momentum by adding 73 GW of renewable capacity over the past two years, exceeding its Paris Agreement commitments ahead of schedule. Brazil has leveraged its vast hydroelectric resources while expanding into bioenergy, achieving 87 per cent renewable electricity generation by late 2024.

Despite ongoing challenges with state utility Eskom, South Africa’s energy transformation has been equally remarkable, adding more renewable capacity than coal for the second consecutive year. The country’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme has attracted $14 billion in private investment since 2022.

However, this progress faces a critical test with BRICS expansion. The five new members, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Uzbekistan, bring energy portfolios that are overwhelmingly fossil-fuel dependent, with coal, oil, and gas comprising 78 per cent of their combined power capacity. These nations are developing 25 GW of new fossil fuel plants while advancing only 2.3 GW of wind and utility-scale solar projects, a ratio that threatens to reverse the entire bloc’s climate trajectory.

Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, has 13.5 GW of coal plants under construction despite announcing a 2060 net-zero target. Kazakhstan is developing 4.2 GW of coal capacity while possessing some of the world’s best wind and solar resources. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is prioritising $28 billion in oil and gas infrastructure over renewable alternatives that could provide more reliable and affordable electricity access.

This contradiction becomes more troubling in economics. The International Renewable Energy Agency reports that 86 per cent of renewable capacity added globally in 2024 generated electricity at costs below fossil fuel alternatives. In Southeast Asia, new solar projects now deliver power at $0.048 per kilowatt-hour compared to $0.073 for coal plants.

Chinese state-owned enterprises are paradoxical in this dynamic, simultaneously driving both trends. While China leads global renewable deployment domestically, Chinese companies finance 62 per cent of power capacity under construction in new BRICS countries, including 88 per cent of coal projects and 93 per cent of hydropower developments. This $47 billion investment pipeline reflects China’s Belt and Road Initiative strategy but creates tension with Beijing’s domestic climate commitments and international leadership aspirations.

The financing reveals deeper geopolitical dynamics shaping global energy transitions. Western development banks have largely withdrawn from fossil fuel projects, creating space for Chinese institutions to fill the gap. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and China Development Bank have provided $23 billion for energy projects in new BRICS countries since 2022, with 68 per cent supporting fossil fuel development. This funding pattern suggests that BRICS expansion represents energy cooperation. Kenya’s experience, while outside BRICS, illuminates broader Africa’s energy dilemmas. The country generates over 85 per cent of electricity from renewables, primarily geothermal and hydro. Yet the country continues approving fossil fuel projects, including controversial gas-fired plants and the long-stalled Lamu coal project, highlighting how even renewable energy champions struggle to abandon fossil fuel options entirely.

Faces opposition

The Lamu coal project, has delayed since 2015. Initially justified as essential for energy security, the 981-megawatt plant now faces opposition from environmental groups, local communities, and economic analysts; who argue that falling renewable costs have made coal uncompetitive. The project’s $2 billion cost could instead finance 3,500 MW of solar capacity, providing more electricity at a lower cost while avoiding 8.8 million tonnes of annual carbon emissions.

African energy dynamics mirror broader developing world challenges. The African Development Bank reports that while the continent added 4.5 GW of renewable capacity in 2024, fossil fuel investments totalled $67 billion compared to $24 billion for clean energy. Nigeria alone approved $15 billion in oil and gas projects while allocating just $2.8 billion for renewable development despite having 200 million people lacking reliable electricity access who could benefit from distributed solar systems than fossil fuel plants.

Energy security concerns drive many decisions, particularly for countries heavily dependent on energy imports. Other considerations also matter as fossil fuel industries employ millions and provide significant government revenues. In Kazakhstan, oil and gas generate 35 per cent of government income, making rapid transition politically challenging despite abundant renewable resources.

However, emerging trends suggest potential pathways toward acceleration. Chinese renewable technology costs continue falling, with solar panel prices dropping 25 per cent in 2024 alone. Battery storage costs have declined by 89 per cent since 2019, addressing intermittency concerns that previously favoured fossil fuel baseload power. These technological advances make renewable energy increasingly attractive even in countries with strong fossil fuel traditions.

International pressure is also intensifying. The COP28 commitment to triple renewable capacity by 2030 requires unprecedented deployment rates, with developing countries needing to install 11,000 GW of clean energy this decade.

Climate risks are becoming impossible to ignore. New BRICS members face severe climate vulnerabilities, with Indonesia experiencing accelerating sea-level rise, Kazakhstan confronting desertification, and Nigeria dealing with extreme weather that damaged $3.2 billion of infrastructure in 2024. These climate impacts increasingly outweigh the short-term economic benefits of fossil fuel development.

Financial markets are also shifting. Major international investors are divesting from fossil fuel projects, with $40 trillion in assets under management now subject to net-zero commitments.

jwmbuthia@ke.nationmedia.com